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Title Fleet dynamics in fisheries management strategy evaluations / Coby L. Needle.
Name Needle, Coby L. .
Abstract Fisheries managers use scientific evaluations of management plans to determine whether such plans will be sustainable. Most extant evaluations do not account for changes in fleet dynamics in response to management measures, and are likely to be flawed as a result. In this thesis, I develop a new simulation model to address this issue. I present motivating case studies of management strategy evaluations for haddock, survey-based management approaches, and multi-species catch quotas, in order to highlight the need for an improved spatio-temporal fishery modelling framework. I characterise the response of the Scottish whitefish fleet to short-term real-time area closures, as an example of the type of fleet dynamics that a new model would need to be able to simulate for cod in the North Sea. I demonstrate using two complementary methods that such closures are unlikely to have directly encouraged skippers to avoid cod-important areas, and are therefore unlikely to have reduced cod mortality. I develop and implement a new spatio-temporal fishery simulation model which is flexible and powerful enough to account for fleet responses and thereby enable insightful quantitative analysis and evaluation of the wide range of management approaches. Finally, I report initial tests of the model, which demonstrate that a vessel seeking to maximise weekly profit will act differently (and with different fish stock implications) to one that is allowed a maximum weekly catch. With this model and the further future developments of it that I outline, scientists will be in a much better position to advise fisheries managers on stock sustainability over long-term time scales.
Publication date 2011
Name University of Strathclyde. Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics.
Thesis note Thesis PhD University of Strathclyde 2011 T13237
System Number 000002306

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